Geopolitics remain the other key market driver.
The war involving Iran and the disruption to transit in the Strait of Hormuz have lifted energy prices, complicated central bank decision-making and reintroduced a stagflationary risk into the outlook. For Canada, this creates a nuanced environment: higher oil prices can support parts of the Canadian equity market and the currency, but they also raise input costs, pressure consumers and limit the Bank of Canada’s ability to ease policy while inflation is still sensitive to energy shocks.
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