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The conflict involving Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed for most of the year and oil above US$100 through much of the autumn. Fuel prices like gasoline and diesel have surged, lifting headline inflation to 3.1% while core inflation (excluding energy) sat at 2.1%. The same split is wider in the United States, where headline inflation is 3.7% against core of 2.6%
NAVIGATOR | FALL 2026 Living The Values Behind OceanFront In this Fall 2026 edition of the OceanFront Navigator, we're doing something a little different. Rather than featuring a client, we're turning the lens on one of our own: Bruce Lindsay, one of OceanFront's founding partners.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00% in September, noting that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, domestic spending remains resilient, capital investment is robust and inflation remains elevated. That mix is supportive for earnings, but it has also pushed expected policy rates and longer-term bond yields higher. Canada is facing a similar tension.
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On the trade rupture, Governor Macklem was specific: the newly tariffed products “represent about 5% of exports to the United States.”
As August begins, markets are navigating a more divergent macro backdrop. Global activity remains resilient, helped by U.S. consumption and AI-related investment, but inflation risk has not fully disappeared.
The war involving Iran and the disruption to transit in the Strait of Hormuz have lifted energy prices, complicated central bank decision-making and reintroduced a stagflationary risk into the outlook.
The better lesson starts earlier. Not with a lecture. With small, repeated decisions that build strong savings and investing habits before the stakes are real.
Markets enter May facing a more complex and less forgiving macro backdrop. The dominant near-term risk is the Middle East conflict and the resulting disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
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