Trade Rupture
On the trade rupture, Governor Macklem was specific: the newly tariffed products “represent about 5% of exports to the United States.” Section 338 takes the average U.S. effective tariff on Canadian goods to roughly 5.7%, still below the world average of 6.7% and well below the euro area at 7.5%, Japan at 9.9% and China at 20.5%. Canada remains one of the least-tariffed suppliers to the United States, and the 20-percentage-point spike of March 2025 was twice as punitive as anything in force today.
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