In this environment, discipline matters.
Markets enter May facing a more complex and less forgiving macro backdrop. The dominant near-term risk is the Middle East conflict and the resulting disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have fluctuated near US$100/barrel, tanker traffic through the strait has fallen dramatically, and the resulting energy risk premium has revived concerns about inflation, consumer purchasing power, corporate margins, and the path of central bank policy.
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